Research Brief: How China and Norway Lead Electric Car Adoption

Question: What do the two leading electric car markets, China and Norway, tell us about how fast adoption can happen, and why? Date: 22 October 2026 Method: Web research with sources cited inline. Figures are quoted as the sources report them. Numbers in brackets refer to the source list at the end.

Summary

Electric cars passed 20 million sales worldwide in 2025, about 25% of all new cars sold, up 20% on 2024 [1][2].
China is the volume leader. New energy vehicle (NEV) sales reached 12.866 million in 2024, 40.9% of all new vehicle sales [3][4].
Norway is the share leader. 88.9% of new passenger cars sold in 2024 were fully electric, and 91.6% were plug-in [5][6].
The two markets got there by different routes. China grew a domestic industry at scale. Norway made electric cars cheaper than petrol cars through tax policy.

Global picture

According to the IEA's Global EV Outlook 2026, electric car sales exceeded 20 million in 2025 and made up 25% of global car sales, while electric cars were still only about 5% of all cars on the road [1][2]. The gap between sales share and fleet share matters. Even with fast sales growth, the fleet turns over slowly, so tailpipe emissions from existing cars fall more gradually than headline sales suggest.

China: scale and industry

In 2024, NEV production was 12.888 million and sales were 12.866 million, up 34.4% and 35.5% year on year [3][4].
NEV share of new vehicle sales was 40.9%, up 9.3 percentage points from 2023 [3][4].
The mix shifted toward plug-in hybrids. Battery electric models were 60% of NEV sales, down 10.4 points, while plug-in hybrids rose to 40% [3][4].
China exported more than 2 million NEVs in 2024 and stayed the world's largest NEV exporter [3].

Caveat: China's NEV figures come from industry statistics that count all new vehicles, including commercial vehicles, and include exports. They are not directly comparable with passenger car registration data from other countries.

Norway: price parity through policy

Plug-in market share of new cars rose from 29.1% in 2016 to 74.7% in 2020 and 91.6% in 2024 [5].
In 2020, Norway became the first country where annual sales of all-electric cars exceeded those of all petrol and diesel cars combined [5].
The main levers were tax exemptions. All-electric cars and vans were exempt from purchase taxes, which are very high for ordinary cars, and from 25% VAT. They were also exempt from annual road tax, public parking fees and tolls, and could use bus lanes [5].
The National Transport Plan set a goal that all new cars, urban buses and light vans sold in 2025 be zero emission [5].

What this suggests

Price is the main driver. Norway shows that when an electric car costs less to buy and run, buyers switch quickly, even in a cold climate.
Industry scale lowers cost for everyone. China's volume and exports push down prices well beyond its own borders.
Plug-in hybrids are a large share of growth in China. Watching the BEV and PHEV split is important for forecasting charging demand and emissions.
Fleet share lags sales share. Policy targets based on new sales alone overstate near-term emissions cuts.

Open questions for follow-up

How did Norway's market respond as some EV tax benefits were reduced?
How much of China's 2024 growth came from domestic passenger cars versus exports and commercial vehicles?

Sources

International Energy Agency, "Trends in electric cars", Global EV Outlook 2026, 20 May 2026. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/trends-in-electric-cars
Wikipedia, "Electric car use by country". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country
Wikipedia, "Plug-in electric vehicles in China". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_China
Securities Times (STCN), report on 2024 NEV production and sales. https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/1491990.html
Wikipedia, "Plug-in electric vehicles in Norway". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Norway
Reuters, "In Norway, nearly all new cars sold in 2024 were fully electric", 2 January 2025. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/norway-nearly-all-new-cars-sold-2024-were-fully-electric-2025-01-02/